GEO-POWER-EU Strategic Foresight Findings Presented at Warsaw Security Forum

GEO-POWER-EU Strategic Foresight Findings Presented at Warsaw Security Forum

On 13 October 2026, GEO-POWER-EU strategic foresight findings were presented at the Warsaw Security Forum in a closed-door session hosted by the New Security Leaders. Marcus How and Malwina Talik (VE INSIGHT) presented the key conclusions of the project deliverable D3.5 Strategic Foresight, which explores eight possible geopolitical futures for the EU candidate-state neighborhood, the six Western Balkan countries, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, through to 2031.

The report draws on a structured expert elicitation involving 45 regional specialists. Its central finding is that the EU’s structural predominance does not automatically translate into political leverage: the Union may remain the region’s principal economic and institutional partner while its capacity to shape domestic reform and government behavior gradually weakens. The report also emphasizes that candidate states themselves, through their own strategic choices and alignments, help shape the regional order, and that external influence in the neighborhood is not a zero-sum contest.