Strategic Focus Areas

GEO-POWER-EU aims to analyse the effectiveness of EU enlargement policy and the adequacy of its current tools and resources for the integration of all countries with EU membership perspective. Moreover, the project intends to interrogate the continued relevance of the EaP as part of the European Neighbourhood Policy. GEO-POWER-EU investigates the degree of effectiveness of EU accession policies in the Western Balkans and the EaP, with a particular consideration for the challenges of economic convergence and brain drain, as well as green energy transition and energy security.

Lessons from policy shortcomings in the Western Balkans are used to inform proposals for policy formation for both the WB and the EaP. Furthermore, GEO-POWER-EU examines the utility and effectiveness of the EaP framework by questioning its policy relevance and the lack of the EU’s strategic coherence towards the region. The project aims to answer the question of how can the European Political Community, the EU’s enlargement policy and the EaP be accommodated in light of the EU’s strategic compass and the EU’s vision of becoming a global strategic player. GEO-POWER-EU aspires to propose a comprehensive and multidimensional EU strategy that will guide relations with the WB and the EaP countries.

GEO-POWER-EU aims at assessing the influence of geopolitical actors, other than the EU, in the Western Balkans and the EaP, such as the United States, Russia, China and Türkiye. Policy recommendations and strategic foresight about the prospect of geopolitical competition in the two regions will be provided. In order to examine geopolitical competition, the project focuses on two critical sets of issues, namely the use of corrosive capital and disinformation. Corrosive capital refers to the abuse of governance weaknesses by an investor country/company resulting into making these gaps wider and weakening democratic institutions and practices. Disinformation refers to the practice of spreading misleading or false information deliberately in order to manipulate public opinion and influence policy.

In the case of the WB/EaP disinformation evokes anti-Western/anti-EU feelings. Both phenomena are widespread in the two regions resulting into democratic backsliding and hindering of integration with the EU. GEO-POWER-EU will examine the current strength of democratic institutions, processes and perceptions in society in the Western Balkans and the EaP and will identify linkages of interdependence between geopolitical actors and the countries involved in order to reveal their degree of vulnerability and susceptibility to this influence. The project will deliver a continuously updated database with information on these linkages and a serious game to test the implications of different scenarios on the EU integration prospect of the two regions.

GEO-POWER-EU aims to increase the EU strategic autonomy and its ability to contain military threats that emanate from the deteriorating geopolitical environment beyond its borders. The project addresses issues such as the impact of the US commitment to EU defence during the war on Ukraine on EU’s strategic autonomy and the ability of the EU to utilise the lessons from the said invasion in its future security and defence toolbox.

Finally, the project examines the possibility of individual EU member states’ policy convergence into a common defence and military cooperation. GEO-POWER-EU examines the political, institutional, and technological hurdles in EU defence cooperation and explores the applicability of different ideas and thoughts on policy reform. Furthermore, it will articulate policy prescriptions on the growth of EU strategic autonomy and defence cooperation.

Desk Research

Collecting and reviewing data from online databases, EU/national statistical agencies, and government communiques to understand the historical evolution of geopolitical influence in the two regions.

In-depth Elite Interviews

Conducted with decision-makers, stakeholders, and experts to gather insights on EU policies and the strategic ambitions of geopolitical actors.

Statistical indexing techniques

Measurement of external geopolitical influence in the two regions through the construction of three multi-sectoral indices: an Interdependence Index, an Exposure Risk Index, and a Strategic Autonomy Index.

Public Opinion Survey

Conducted in all Western Balkans and Associated Trio countries to gather societal stances, perceptions, and beliefs about the role and influence of geopolitical actors.

Focus Groups

Organized in selected countries to explore economic convergence, emigration, brain drain, and green energy transition.

Social Media Sentiment Analysis

Analyzing reactions of social media users from specific locations to selected events to detect prevalent beliefs and perceptions.

Research Phases:

Baseline Study: Taking stock of the state of the art in relevant discussions and developing a common conceptual framework.
Data Collection and Analysis: Conducting surveys, interviews, focus groups, and social media sentiment analysis to gather and process data.
Scenario Planning and Testing: Using strategic foresight with scenario planning and scenario testing to anticipate the evolution of geopolitical competition.