Methodology

GEO-POWER-EU takes a comprehensive and interdisciplinary approach to understanding the shifting geopolitical dynamics of the Eastern Neighbourhood and the Western Balkans. Combining methodological innovation with a multi-method research design, the project draws on both qualitative and quantitative tools. This balanced approach avoids overreliance on statistics or individual narratives, instead cross-referencing diverse sources to generate well-rounded, evidence-based insights.

The methodology is structured around two principal independent variables: (1) the strategic ambitions of external geopolitical actors, namely, the EU, United States, Russia, China, and Turkey; (2) the strategic orientations of countries within the EU. To operationalise these variables, the project undertakes a systematic programme of data collection, comparative analysis, and scenario development. The analysis of external actors’ influence is conducted through the construction of different indices, network mapping, and strategic foresight exercises, including scenario planning and testing, which enable dynamic modelling of future geopolitical trajectories.

The project unfolds in three analytical phases. The first phase focuses on the assessment of the past through baseline studies and historical review. The second phase provides a diagnosis of the present, including contemporary policy analysis and strategic mapping. Finally, the third phase projects the future through foresight, simulation, and strategic innovation.

The project further investigates domestic strategic preferences in the target regions through a layered and participatory empirical framework comprising:

Desk Research

Collecting and reviewing data from online databases, EU/national statistical agencies, and government communiques to understand the historical evolution of geopolitical influence in the two regions.

In-depth Elite Interviews

Conducted with decision-makers, stakeholders, and experts to gather insights on EU policies and the strategic ambitions of geopolitical actors.

Statistical indexing techniques

Measurement of external geopolitical influence in the two regions through the construction of three multi-sectoral indices: an Interdependence Index, an Exposure Risk Index, and a Strategic Autonomy Index.

Public Opinion Survey

Conducted in all Western Balkans and Associated Trio countries to gather societal stances, perceptions, and beliefs about the role and influence of geopolitical actors.

Focus Groups

Organized in selected countries to explore economic convergence, emigration, brain drain, and green energy transition.

Social Media Sentiment Analysis

Analyzing reactions of social media users from specific locations to selected events to detect prevalent beliefs and perceptions.

Participatory Innovation – All research activities are underpinned by participatory processes involving the project’s academic consortium, external experts, and regional stakeholders.

Through this multi-level, multi-actor, and multi-method approach, GEO-POWER-EU aims to produce a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical dynamics shaping the EU’s neighbourhood, while contributing actionable knowledge to inform the development of a comprehensive and resilient EU foreign policy strategy.