About GEO-POWER-EU
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Project Overview
Ambition: GEO-POWER-EU’s main objective is to contribute to the empowerment of the EU to manage security threats within the deteriorating geopolitical environment that lies in its Eastern Neighbourhood and in the Western Balkans. The project’s main goal is to articulate a proposal for a comprehensive EU strategy towards these regions that will employ new and reformed means and policy instruments, taking into consideration foresight concerning the strategic ambitions of other geopolitical actors.
Impact: GEO-POWER-EU focuses on strengthening the security dimension of EU’s policies by producing evidence based up-to-date research output and policy recommendations. The project departs from the assumption that the enlargement and EaP policies have progressively reached a critical point, accentuated by the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, which calls for major revisions in order to produce a well-informed strategy and additional reliable tools for policy making, such as scenarios, that can be used by policy makers. The goal of the project is improvement of the EU neighbourhood policy and accession process, thanks to a clear vision for the political agenda of the EU towards the EaP and the WB, based on a deep and nuanced analytical basis.
Conceptually, GEO-POWER-EU will link both the enlargement and EaP policies, two areas traditionally studied as two distinct political regions falling under different policy radars, in order to reflect the post-Russian invasion in Ukraine EU policy needs. Methodologically, the project will combine traditional quantitative and qualitative methods (desk research, semi-structured interviews, focus groups, case studies and a population survey in the WB and the Associated Trio), together with digital methods (Sentiment Analysis), a foresight exercise and scenario testing with a Serious Game, provisionally named ‘Strategum’. The deliverables also include the creation of three Indices, which will build a continuously updated ‘Interdependence Database’, which will become publicly available. The methods chosen will cover past, present and future policy analysis and impact.
Funding: The GEO-POWER-EU project is funded by the European Union under grant agreement ID 101132692.
Objectives & Vision
Objectives:
Adaptation of EU Enlargement Policy: Propose ideas for adapting the EU Enlargement policy to current geopolitical realities.
Reform of the Eastern Partnership (EaP): Examine the relevance of the EaP and offer policy recommendations for its reform.
Assessment of Geopolitical Influences: Analyze the influence of geopolitical actors such as the United States, Russia, China, and Turkey in the two regions.
Strategic Foresight: Provide strategic foresight on the prospects of geopolitical competition in these regions.
Military Threat Containment: Explore the EU's capacity to contain military threats from beyond its borders.
Comprehensive EU Strategy: Develop a multidimensional strategy to guide EU relations with the Western Balkans and EaP countries.
Vision:
GEO-POWER-EU envisions a European Union that is strategically autonomous and capable of effectively managing security threats in its Eastern Neighbourhood and the Western Balkans. By addressing complex security and geopolitical challenges, the project aims to enhance the EU's capacity to navigate and shape its geopolitical environment. The ultimate vision is for the EU to emerge as a strong, cohesive geopolitical power with the ability to ensure stability and security in these critical regions.Methodology
The GEO-POWER-EU project employs a mixed interdisciplinary approach, integrating both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The project utilizes traditional, new, and digital research techniques, organized into a participatory and inclusive framework with contributions from all partners.
Strategic Focus Areas
EU Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy
GEO-POWER-EU aims to analyse the effectiveness of EU enlargement policy and the adequacy of its current tools and resources for the integration of all countries with EU membership perspective. Moreover, the project intends to interrogate the continued relevance of the EaP as part of the European Neighbourhood Policy. GEO-POWER-EU investigates the degree of effectiveness of EU accession policies in the Western Balkans and the EaP, with a particular consideration for the challenges of economic convergence and brain drain, as well as green energy transition and energy security.
Lessons from policy shortcomings in the Western Balkans are used to inform proposals for policy formation for both the WB and the EaP. Furthermore, GEO-POWER-EU examines the utility and effectiveness of the EaP framework by questioning its policy relevance and the lack of the EU’s strategic coherence towards the region. The project aims to answer the question of how can the European Political Community, the EU’s enlargement policy and the EaP be accommodated in light of the EU’s strategic compass and the EU’s vision of becoming a global strategic player. GEO-POWER-EU aspires to propose a comprehensive and multidimensional EU strategy that will guide relations with the WB and the EaP countries.
Geopolitical Competition
GEO-POWER-EU aims at assessing the influence of geopolitical actors, other than the EU, in the Western Balkans and the EaP, such as the United States, Russia, China and Türkiye. Policy recommendations and strategic foresight about the prospect of geopolitical competition in the two regions will be provided. In order to examine geopolitical competition, the project focuses on two critical sets of issues, namely the use of corrosive capital and disinformation. Corrosive capital refers to the abuse of governance weaknesses by an investor country/company resulting into making these gaps wider and weakening democratic institutions and practices. Disinformation refers to the practice of spreading misleading or false information deliberately in order to manipulate public opinion and influence policy.
In the case of the WB/EaP disinformation evokes anti-Western/anti-EU feelings. Both phenomena are widespread in the two regions resulting into democratic backsliding and hindering of integration with the EU. GEO-POWER-EU will examine the current strength of democratic institutions, processes and perceptions in society in the Western Balkans and the EaP and will identify linkages of interdependence between geopolitical actors and the countries involved in order to reveal their degree of vulnerability and susceptibility to this influence. The project will deliver a continuously updated database with information on these linkages and a serious game to test the implications of different scenarios on the EU integration prospect of the two regions.
EU strategic autonomy and defence capabilities
GEO-POWER-EU aims to increase the EU strategic autonomy and its ability to contain military threats that emanate from the deteriorating geopolitical environment beyond its borders. The project addresses issues such as the impact of the US commitment to EU defence during the war on Ukraine on EU’s strategic autonomy and the ability of the EU to utilise the lessons from the said invasion in its future security and defence toolbox.
Finally, the project examines the possibility of individual EU member states’ policy convergence into a common defence and military cooperation. GEO-POWER-EU examines the political, institutional, and technological hurdles in EU defence cooperation and explores the applicability of different ideas and thoughts on policy reform. Furthermore, it will articulate policy prescriptions on the growth of EU strategic autonomy and defence cooperation.
Desk Research
Collecting and reviewing data from online databases, EU/national statistical agencies, and government communiques to understand the historical evolution of geopolitical influence in the two regions.
In-depth Elite Interviews
Conducted with decision-makers, stakeholders, and experts to gather insights on EU policies and the strategic ambitions of geopolitical actors.
Statistical indexing techniques
Measurement of external geopolitical influence in the two regions through the construction of three multi-sectoral indices: an Interdependence Index, an Exposure Risk Index, and a Strategic Autonomy Index.
Public Opinion Survey
Conducted in all Western Balkans and Associated Trio countries to gather societal stances, perceptions, and beliefs about the role and influence of geopolitical actors.
Focus Groups
Organized in selected countries to explore economic convergence, emigration, brain drain, and green energy transition.
Social Media Sentiment Analysis
Analyzing reactions of social media users from specific locations to selected events to detect prevalent beliefs and perceptions.
Research Phases:
- Baseline Study: Taking stock of the state of the art in relevant discussions and developing a common conceptual framework.
- Data Collection and Analysis: Conducting surveys, interviews, focus groups, and social media sentiment analysis to gather and process data.
- Scenario Planning and Testing: Using strategic foresight with scenario planning and scenario testing to anticipate the evolution of geopolitical competition.
Policy Recommendations:
Co-creating policy recommendations through national workshops and multi-stakeholder co-creation studios.Work Program
Work Package 1: State of the Art and Conceptualization
This work package focuses on establishing the conceptual groundwork for the GEO-POWER-EU project. It involves reviewing existing literature and policies related to EU enlargement, the Eastern Partnership, and geopolitical competition. The goal is to develop a robust theoretical framework that will guide the project's research and policy recommendations, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of the current state of affairs and historical context.
Work Package 2: Enlargement and EaP
In this phase, we critically analyze the effectiveness of current EU enlargement and Eastern Partnership policies. The work package addresses key issues such as economic convergence, emigration, brain drain, energy security, and green transition. By exploring these areas, we aim to identify gaps and propose improvements to enhance the EU's approach towards these regions, ensuring that policies are aligned with contemporary geopolitical and economic realities.
Work Package 3: Geopolitical Competition and EU Strategic Autonomy
This package is dedicated to assessing the influence of major geopolitical actors and examining the EU's strategic autonomy and defense capabilities, providing strategic foresight on geopolitical competition. Through this analysis, we aim to understand the dynamics of external influence and how the EU can strengthen its geopolitical stance and policy effectiveness.
Work Package 4: A Comprehensive and Multidimensional Policy Framework
Building on the insights from previous work packages, this phase focuses on integrating findings to develop a comprehensive EU strategy. It includes scenario testing to anticipate the consequences of geopolitical competition and refine policy recommendations. The goal is to create a multidimensional framework that addresses both immediate and long-term strategic needs, enhancing the EU's role as a geopolitical actor.
Work Package 5: Dissemination, Communication, and Exploitation
Effective communication and dissemination of project results are critical for the success and sustainability of GEO-POWER-EU. This work package ensures that stakeholders and target groups are engaged and informed throughout the project lifecycle. By promoting actionable outcomes and fostering synergies with other initiatives, we aim to maximize the impact of our findings and support the adoption of our policy recommendations.
Work Package 6: Project Management
This package ensures efficient coordination, high-quality standards, and effective communication among all partners. It oversees financial and administrative management, ensuring compliance with regulations and the successful delivery of project objectives.